From Prediction to Perspective: Building Better Thinkers Through Forecasting
How do you teach political science, statistics, psychology, and humility鈥攁ll in one semester? For Dr. Joe Ornstein, the answer is simple: make it fun. His course, How to Predict the Future (POLS 3220), offers students an unexpected entry point into the serious business of forecasting real-world events and understanding how the world works.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a really fun way to engage with political science,鈥� says Ornstein, assistant professor of political science. 鈥淢aking predictions is inherently
probabilistic, so you end up learning the foundations of quantitative reasoning along the way.鈥�
Designed as an interdisciplinary experience, the course blends material from political science, economics, cognitive psychology, and statistics. Each week, students read a chapter from Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, followed by a short quiz that tests their understanding of key concepts. But the core of the course lies in its forecasting challenges. Throughout the semester, students submit predictions for more than 40 sociopolitical events, each framed as a yes-or-no question (e.g., Will SB 68 pass the Georgia General Assembly? or Will Beyonc茅 win a Grammy in a country music category?). Students assign a probability and offer a short explanation, essentially conducting a mini research project several times a week.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a little bit of everything鈥攑olitical science, critical thinking, creativity,鈥� says Ornstein. 鈥淵ou get better by doing, and there鈥檚 nothing quite like putting your ideas on the line.鈥�
Each prediction is scored using the Brier score, a statistical measure of forecast accuracy that rewards honest, well-calibrated predictions. 鈥淚t鈥檚 like a mathematical truth serum,鈥� he explains. 鈥淵ou get the best score by being honest about what you actually think will happen, not by hedging or exaggerating.鈥�
And yes, there鈥檚 a leaderboard鈥攗pdated throughout the semester to track the top forecasters in the class. Ornstein himself participates, and while he鈥檚 often near the top, he鈥檚 not guaranteed a win.
Beyond the daily predictions, students also serve as Discussion Leaders throughout the semester. They write short briefing papers that are well-researched, well-sourced, and clearly written in order to guide classroom conversations about each forecast. These briefings must present at least two different perspectives, reinforcing the course鈥檚 emphasis on intellectual humility and diverse viewpoints.
鈥淥ne consistent theme is learning to incorporate multiple perspectives into your thinking,鈥� Ornstein says. 鈥淭he best forecasters have a habit of looking at problems from every angle. And that鈥檚 a valuable lesson not just for forecasting, but for life.鈥�
For Ornstein, the class also serves as a kind of 鈥渕ini focus group,鈥� giving him insight into how students are thinking about the world鈥攁nd offering him a steady stream of clever, surprising, and sometimes prophetic questions.
Despite the lighthearted tone, the class delivers meaningful takeaways. Students walk away with a sharper understanding of probability, stronger research skills, and a more nuanced way of thinking about uncertainty. It鈥檚 not a coding course or a heavy stats class, but it lays the groundwork for both.
鈥淚n any career in government, law, consulting, etc. being able to think probabilistically and make informed decisions is essential,鈥� Ornstein says. 鈥淭his class helps students build that skillset.鈥�
So, can you predict the future? Maybe not with total certainty. But thanks to Dr. Ornstein鈥檚 class, students are learning how to get closer鈥攐ne question, one probability, and one Brier score at a time.
